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Development of an Agent Based Model for Simulation of the Spatiotemporal Spread of Leishmaniasis in GIS (Case Study: Marveh Tappeh).
Mohammad Tabasi M , Ali Asghar Alesheikh A. A
Abstract:   (37 Views)
Cutaneous Leishmaniasis (CL) is an endemic and parasitic disease that transmitted by the bites of female sand fly. The disease has created a public health issue in the Middle East and worldwide. It has also imposed social and economic damages to numerous countries. The spread of CL is highly associated with the spatial parameters, spatial and socio-ecological interactions of vectors (sand fly), hosts (human), reservoirs (rodents) and the environment. The heterogeneity of these interactions has hindered the accurate modelling of CL for healthcare preventive measures in endemic areas. Agent-Based Modeling (ABM) can be used as a new technology to study these behaviors, simulating the spread of disease, and complex interactions. The capabilities of geospatial information systems (GIS) can also be used to facilitate the collection, analysis and display of disease information. Therefore, the contribution of this paper is integration of GIS, ABM and improved Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) epidemic model for exploring the CL spread. To evaluate the proposed model, data from the Marave-Tappe County in Golestan Province, an endemic area in Iran, was used. Using various simulations and scenarios in this study, indicated how CL spreads in different parts of the study area with different socio-ecological conditions. The results of this model indicated that the spread of CL occurs principally in arid and low altitude areas, riverside and population centers. The results also showed that the restrict activities of humans in rural areas led to reduce the severity of the epidemic. The results also showed that the spread of CL has a particular pattern, so that the prevalent cases of CL occur in the second half of the year. This finding could be due to the latent period of this disease and inactivity of sand flies in the cold seasons of the year. As a result, preventive behaviors can be implemented in order to control this disease by the obtained patterns and achieve effects of these behaviors. Finally, the impact of preventive measures on reducing and control of CL was showed by the visual presentation of the propagation of this disease through the different scenarios.
Keywords: Agent-based Modeling, Leishmaniasis, GIS, SEIR Model.
Type of Study: Research | Subject: GIS
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نشریه علمی پژوهشی علوم و فنون نقشه برداری Journal of Geomatics Science and Technology