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:: Volume 8, Issue 3 (2-2019) ::
JGST 2019, 8(3): 113-131 Back to browse issues page
Development of an Agent-Based Model for Simulation of the Spatiotemporal Spread of Leishmaniasis in GIS (Case Study: Maraveh Tappeh)
M. Tabasi *, A. A. Alesheikh
Abstract:   (2632 Views)
Cutaneous Leishmaniasis (CL) is an endemic, parasitic and a vector-borne human disease that is transmitted by the bites of female sand fly. The little attention has been paid to control it, which has imposed an economic burden on societies and has created a public health issue in the Middle East and worldwide. An approximated 12 million humans are infected, and about 1.5 to 2 million new cases of CL happen each year worldwide. More than two-thirds of new CL cases currently happen in six countries: Iran, Colombia, Algeria, Syria, Brazil and Afghanistan. The spread of the CL is highly associated with the spatial parameters, spatial and socio-ecological interactions of vectors (sand fly), hosts (human), reservoirs (rodents) and the environment. The heterogeneity of these interactions has hindered the accurate modelling of the CL for healthcare preventive measures in endemic areas. Agent-Based Modeling (ABM) can be used as a new technology to study these behaviors and to simulate the spread of the disease and complex interactions. The capabilities of geospatial information systems (GIS) can also be used to facilitate the collection, analysis and display of disease information. Therefore, the contribution of this paper is the integration of GIS, ABM and an improved Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) epidemic model for exploring the CL spread. To evaluate the proposed model, data from the Maraveh-Tappeh County in Golestan Province, an endemic area in Iran, including CL notification, landscape and census data, were used. The physical and social environment of northeastern Golestan has been mainly characterized by the presence of different factors that have been recognized as strongly associated with CL, large rural populations, suitable climatic conditions, riverbeds, desert and lowland area. Using various simulations and scenarios in this study, indicated how the CL spreads in different parts of the study area with various socio-ecological conditions. The results of this model indicated that the spread of the CL occurs principally in arid and low altitude areas, riverside and population centers. The results also showed that the restriction on human activities in rural areas leads to reduce the severity of the epidemic. The results also showed that the spread of the CL has a particular pattern, and the prevalent cases of the CL occur in the second half of the year. This finding could be due to the latent period of this disease and inactivity of sand flies in the cold seasons of the year. As a result, preventive behaviors can be implemented in order to control this disease by the obtained patterns and achieve the effects of these behaviors. Moreover, the impact of preventive measures on reducing and controlling of the CL was shown by the visual presentation of the propagation of this disease through the different scenarios, including population size, latent period, infection period, sensory range of sand fly's bite, insecticides, bed nets, health services and rodents control. Finally, the outbreak of the CL has a spatiotemporal pattern in the case study which is related to a complex cycle where the sand fly, rodent, human and the environment have a significant influence. This modeling effort can lead to a better understanding of disease spread dynamics and eventually to take better steps towards the prevention and control of CL spread.
Keywords: Agent-based Modeling, Leishmaniasis, GIS, SEIR Model.
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Type of Study: Research | Subject: GIS
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Tabasi M, Alesheikh A A. Development of an Agent-Based Model for Simulation of the Spatiotemporal Spread of Leishmaniasis in GIS (Case Study: Maraveh Tappeh). JGST. 2019; 8 (3) :113-131
URL: http://jgst.issge.ir/article-1-766-en.html

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Volume 8, Issue 3 (2-2019) Back to browse issues page
نشریه علمی علوم و فنون نقشه برداری Journal of Geomatics Science and Technology